Coyote in the News
I have a couple of quotes in this article on the difficulty of doing business in California.
On the same topic, Megan McArdle quoted extensively from my post on leaving Ventura County, and has some comments of her own.
Dispatches from District 48
I have a couple of quotes in this article on the difficulty of doing business in California.
On the same topic, Megan McArdle quoted extensively from my post on leaving Ventura County, and has some comments of her own.
I like digging through the raw data in the Obamacare report rather than just accepting the bits the New York Times wants to report. As a business guy, I was looking at the data from a sales-conversion perspective -- ie, who is buying and who is not? And of course, why?
When I was in the marketing world, we used to call the process of sales conversion the sales funnel. For the exchanges this means some percentage of the available market actually show up at the exchange, and then some percentage of those actually complete the arduous sign-up process, and some percentage of those actually select a policy, and presumably some percentage of those actually pay, though we don't know what that latter percentage is. At each step, we ask ourselves what people are we converting from one step to the next, and why.
Here is the Obamacare exchange sales funnel through December (as has become tradition, it is a scavenger hunt to fill this in and the data locations move around from month to month).
As you can see, of the nearly 3.7 million people who have selected a private plan or been put in Medicaid or CHIP, fully 88% are on the government dole (subsidized or full Medicare).
The interesting new data is on the plan selection breakdown between subsidized and un-subsidized. This leads to an interesting finding that is a bit non-obvious from the report itself because the data is spread all over the report. But lets look at conversion of applicants to plan selection based on whether folks are subsidized or subsidized.
For the 2,383,131 applicants who find they are no going to be subsidized, only 436,603 have selected a plan, for a 18% conversion rate
For the 2,756,667 applicants who find they will get supported by the taxpayer, 1,646,237 selected a plan, far a 60% conversion rate.
In essence, applicants are more than 3 times more likely to sign up if they are getting taxpayer money. The exchanges are not selling health care, they are selling subsidies. People sign up, check to see if they have money coming, and go away if they don't and stay if they do.
The next really interesting piece of data would be the demographics and health status of the 18% who did sign up for an unsubsidized plan. I would not be at all surprised if the demographics there were far, far worse than the average. Emerging hypothesis: People come to the exchange, and sign up if they get a subsidy, or if they have health problems or high risk.
Apparently when prices for things are arbitrarily doubled, the demand for them goes down.
On Monday, about 175 employees of the buffet restaurant in the slot-machine and electronic gambling casino in Ozone Park learned that the restaurant had been closed and that their jobs no longer existed. The casino had received plaudits when, in late October, a labor arbitrator issued a ruling that doubled the average pay of workers.
...
âEverything is done,â said Mariano Cano, 45, a server at the buffet for the past two years. âThey just threw us out like dogs. They just gave us a couple of dollars to shut up, and thatâs it.â
In October, Mr. Canoâs pay went from just over $5 an hour, plus tips for the drinks he delivered to the tables and dishes he cleared, to around $12, because of the living wage agreement.
This is one of those regulatory overreach paired with corporate cronyism stories, so I won't express any sympathy for the business involved -- it is earning huge rents from insider political deals it cut, and though the NYT does not explain it very well, my sense is that the arbitration requirement on wages was part of that political deal.
But it is amazing to me how much the Left has simply hypnotized itself into believing that minimum wage increases don't affect employment. If we go back a number of months and look at the article where the NYT announced the arbitration decision, there is not one single mention that there might be some job security issues with forcing a doubling of wages.
Jeannine Nixon looked as if she had hit the jackpot. Ms. Nixon, a customer relations representative at in Queens, had just learned that she would be making $40,000 a year, up from $22,300.
âItâs life-changing,â Ms. Nixon, her voice cracking, said on Thursday. âI can finally feel relieved.â
It is amazing to me that it did not even occur to any at the NYT to think that a doubling of worker pay might be anything but a pure bonanza. I suppose they were blinded by a sense that casino margins were so high (though I find that the public consistently overestimates margins of many businesses, confusing revenues with profits). Even if the casino is wildly profitable, one had to consider that all activities in the casino were not equally profitable. Restaurants often have thin margins and 20-30% labor costs. There is simply no room for doubling them in a business that typically has single digit margins at best (in fact, most restaurants lose money).
There are a number of reasons why people can fool themselves into thinking that minimum wage increases have no effect on employment
Which makes this article in the Arizona Republic by Ronald Hansen one of the worst, most facile bits of economic analysis I have ever seen.
But, at the most basic level, there is good reason to think the minimum wage doesnât kill jobs.
The minimum wage has gone up 22 times since it was instituted in 1938. There is complete seasonally adjusted data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics available for 21 of those hikes.
In 15 of those 21 cases, the U.S. economy added jobs in the year after the minimum wage went up.
On 11 occasions, it added more jobs after the hike than it did in the year before the raise went into effect.
This alone suggests that raising the minimum wage isnât an automatic drag on employment growth.
This is simply absurd for all the reasons I listed above. I understand how I might find this kind of "analysis" in the comments section of the Daily Kos, but how does one get this past an editor?
Christopher Monkton has been a very public supporter of the climate skeptic position. I think he sometimes gets his science wrong, but he is glib and entertaining and by his position as peer of the realm he gets media space not available to many of us.
But this is bad, bad, bad. He is calling for using British libel law against an alarmist who merely disagrees. I have not problem with most of his factual defenses of Richard Lindzen. But the points he labels "lies" are more accurately described as areas where people disagree on data source and interpretation. Turning this into libel, under the egregiously onerous British libel laws, is a terrible precedent.
The climate debate is already over-full with vilification and ad hominem attacks. The last thing we need is to throw British courts into the equation.
The proletatrianization of the middle class has been a Marxist goal from the beginning. To this end, Obamacare is making great strides. I will get my new Obamacare enrollment summary out soon, but apparently 79% of the people buying private policies are subsidized. Add to this all the people who are being added to Medicare, and my guess is that over 90% of enrollments are into plans fully or partially funded by taxpayers. Since almost by definition, these are all people who were paying their own way before, these are all people converted from individual responsibility to wards of the state.
And don't forget my 9 predictions for Obamacare stories in 2014. Remember this one?
3. Despite fewer exchange enrollments than expected, total Federal subsidy payments higher than expected
After the Rodney King verdict, the general conclusion was that a jury would not convict police for crimes against minorities. Now we know better. Apparently, juries will not convict police of any crimes whatsoever. Add to this the fact that police departments themselves are so successful covering-up crimes and prevent most from coming to trial, and I wonder if police are beyond accountability.
I know there are a lot of folks who fetishize the police, but in my mind if we give police special powers, then they should have more accountability, not less. I think police should be on camera, for example, every minute of their work day.
The economics of large-scale solar projects still don't work without massive subsidies and mandates that consumers pay above-market rates for solar power.
The journal Nature has finally caught up to the fact that ocean cycles may influence global surface temperature trends. Climate alarmists refused to acknowledge this when temperatures were rising and the cycles were in their warm phase, but now are grasping at these cycles for an explanation of the 15+ year hiatus in warming as a way to avoid abandoning high climate sensitivity assumptions (ie the sensitivity of global temperatures to CO2 concentrations, which IMO are exaggerated by implausible assumptions of positive feedback).
Here is the chart from Nature:
I cannot find my first use of this chart, but here is a version I was using over 5 years ago. I know I was using it long before that
It will be interesting to see if they find a way to blame cycles for cooling in the last 10-15 years but not for the warming in the 80's and 90's.
Next step -- alarmists have the same epiphany about the sun, and blame non-warming on a low solar cycle without simultaneously giving previous high solar cycles any credit for warming. For Nature's benefit, here is another chart they might use (from the same 2008 blog post). The number 50 below is selected arbitrarily, but does a good job of highlighting solar activity in the second half of the 20th century vs. the first half.
I have not updated this story in a while, but we continue to litigate against the Federal Government over the closure of privately-operated and privately-funded parks on public lands. The closure is over, obviously, but it is a situation that is very likely to recur and we are attempting to fight this battle now to set a precedent. The Wall Street Journal's law blog is running an update on the story here.
You can find all my posts from the shutdown here.
Climate alarmists have mastered the trick of portraying opposition to their theories as not just being wrong, but being anti-science. For years many scientists who have not looked into climate science at all have reflexively signed petitions supporting the alarmists, in the belief they were supporting science against anti-science. (By the way, time and again when these physicists and Earth scientists have actually later looked at the quality of climate science work, they have been astounded at the really poor quality garbage they were implicitly supporting -- I know, I am in that camp myself).
It looks like Paul Krugman, the most politicized economist ever(TM), is trying to bring the same style argumentation to economics. If you don't agree with him, you are not just wrong, you are anti-science. He is Galileo, and you are the ill-informed mystic.
So let me summarize: we had a scientific revolution in economics, one that dramatically increased our comprehension of the world and also gave us crucial practical guidance about what to do in the face of depressions. The broad outlines of the theory devised during that revolution have held up extremely well in the face of experience, while those rejecting the theory because it doesn’t correspond to their notion of common sense have been wrong every step of the way.
Yet a large part of both the political establishment and the economics establishment rejects the whole thing out of hand, because they don’t like the conclusions.
Galileo wept.
There are two other similarities between economics and climate that support this kind of blind (but unwarranted) certainty:
One of my favorites writers Megan McArdle comments on my post about the regulatory excess in California. The same post was linked by Reason as well. The Reason post got the attention of Ron Paul, who will be interviewing me for his radio show next week.
I posted a few updates on the article today:
Wow, reading this again, I left out so much! An employee once sued us at this location for harassment and intimidation by her manager -- when the manager was her sister! It cost me over $20,000 in legal expenses to get the case dismissed. I had an older couple file a state complaint for age discrimination when they were terminated -- despite the fact that our entire business model is to hire retired people and the vast majority of our employees are 70 and older. And how could I have forgotten the process of getting a liquor license? I suppose I left it out because while tedious (my wife and I had to fly to California to get fingerprinted, for example), it is not really worse than in other places -- liquor license processes are universally bad, a feature and not a bug for the established businesses one is trying to compete with. We gave the license up pretty quickly, when we saw how crazy and irresponsible much of the customer base was. Trying to make the place safer and more family friendly, we banned alcohol from the lake area, and faced a series of lawsuit threats over that.
This is hilarious. Apparently the polar vortex proves whatever hypothesis you are trying to prove, either cooling or warming:
Steven Goddard of the Real Science blog has the goods on Time magazine. From the 1974 Time article “Another Ice Age?”:
Scientists have found other indications of global cooling. For one thing there has been anoticeable expansion of the great belt of dry, high-altitude polar winds —the so-calledcircumpolar vortex—that sweep from west to east around the top and bottom of the world.
And guess what Time is saying this week? Yup:
But not only does the cold spell not disprove climate change, it may well be that global warming could be making the occasional bout of extreme cold weather in the U.S. even more likely. Right now much of the U.S. is in the grip of a polar vortex, which is pretty much what it sounds like: a whirlwind of extremely cold, extremely dense air that forms near the poles. Usually the fast winds in the vortex—which can top 100 mph (161 k/h)—keep that cold air locked up in the Arctic. But when the winds weaken, the vortex can begin to wobble like a drunk on his fourth martini, and the Arctic air can escape and spill southward, bringing Arctic weather with it. In this case, nearly the entire polar vortex has tumbled southward, leading to record-breaking cold.
I have seen this fact a number of times and am always amazed when I read it, since poverty figures are never, ever presented with this bit of context
LBJ promised that the war on poverty would be an "investment" that would "return its cost manifold to the entire economy." But the country has invested $20.7 trillion in 2011 dollars over the past 50 years. What does America have to show for its investment? Apparently, almost nothing: The official poverty rate persists with little improvement.
That is in part because the government's poverty figures are misleading. Census defines a family as poor based on income level but doesn't count welfare benefits as a form of income. Thus, government means-tested spending can grow infinitely while the poverty rate remains stagnant.
Rector argues that poor today is very different than poor in Johnson's day, and that perhaps we might celebrate a bit
Not even government, though, can spend $9,000 per recipient a year and have no impact on living standards. And it shows: Current poverty has little resemblance to poverty 50 years ago. According to a variety of government sources, including census data and surveys by federal agencies, the typical American living below the poverty level in 2013 lives in a house or apartment that is in good repair, equipped with air conditioning and cable TV. His home is larger than the home of the average nonpoor French, German or English man. He has a car, multiple color TVs and a DVD player. More than half the poor have computers and a third have wide, flat-screen TVs. The overwhelming majority of poor Americans are not undernourished and did not suffer from hunger for even one day of the previous year.
Remember what I presented a while back. This is what the Left thinks, or wants us to think, American income inequality looks like -- our rich are richer than comparable European welfare states because our poor are poorer.
And this is what income inequality in the US actually looks like -- our rich and middle class are richer, but our poor are not poorer. A less redistributionist approach floats all boats. I compared the US to many European welfare states, using the Left's own data source. Here is an example, but hit the link to see it all.
Give people power and they will abuse it. I don't care if it is Chicago Democrats or New Jersey Republicans. Most recent example:
A top aide to Gov. Chris Christie told an executive at the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey it was "time for some traffic problems in Fort Lee" before the authority closed lanes onto the George Washington Bridge in September, triggering a week of massive traffic jams, documents show.
The aide, Bridget Anne Kelly, sent the email, dated Aug. 13, to David Wildstein, a political ally of the governor who was the authority's director of interstate capital projects.
Mr. Wildstein, replied: "Got it."
Apparently this conversation occurred in response to Fort Lee's mayor Mark Sokolich refusing to endorse Christie in last year's governor race
[Mr. Wildasin said] in an apparent reference to Fort Lee Mayor Mark Sokolich: "It will be a tough November for this little Serbian."
Mr. Sokolich said in an interview Wednesday, "I didn't sign up for this petty political insanity."
Mr. Sokolich said he was now convinced he'd been the target of retribution for not endorsing Mr. Christie. "I've been punished not for something I've done, but for something I didn't do," Mr. Sokolich said. "This is the behavior of a bully in a schoolyard. It is the greatest example of political payback."
Also, Mr. Sokolich said he is Croatian.
Mr. Wildasin seens to have been teleported out of a Sopranos episode.
So after spending billions to subsidize the construction and operation of wind farms, Britain has discovered that their output variability is a problem and that they produce too much of their power at night (issues many of us predicted long before they were built). So now England is facing the policy choice of either a) paying wind farm owners to NOT product power or b) paying factory owners to switch their operations to night time. Seriously. For most areas, wind is among the worst possible electricity source.
Up to this point, after some initial bad impressions trying Windows 8 briefly, I have avoided it like the plague. However, my son needed a new laptop and the only ones that really met our requirements only came in Windows 8 flavors, so we bought one.
What an awful mess. The system boots up into a tiled mess that looks like some cheesy website covered in moving gifs and viagra ads. To make matters worse, nothing on this tablet-based interface is organized at all logically. The interface is like the room of an ADD child that dropped all of his toys and books in random spots. I am sure these tiles have some sort of navigation paradigm, but it is completely different from any used in past windows versions. I could not, for example, figure out how to easily exit the store except to alt-tab out (there is no exit or quit option and right-click context menus which are one of the great advantages of windows over mac don't seem to work a lot of the time). Again, I am sure there is some way to do it, but I have no idea what it is and no desire to learn new navigation commands. Perhaps Microsoft intends that one use a gamepad instead of a mouse -- I would not be surprised at this point.
Unlike older versions of windows, windows update did not run automatically at first bootup. I knew from past experience there were likely dozens of security patches I needed to install right away. I hunted for quite a while just to find the windows control panel (so I could run windows update). It was buried in a sub-menu of a toolbar on the right side of the screen that only pops up if you find a tiny (unmarked) spot in the corner of the screen with your mouse. It amazes me that anyone thought replacing the start button with an unmarked spot on the screen was a good idea.
Of course, the control panel is called something entirely different now, but I did eventually find windows update and there were, as expected, over 70 security patches that needed to be installed. But for some reason they would not download immediately, but kept giving me a message that they would be downloaded at some future indeterminate date. I finally found a way to force them to download.
My next step was to get rid of the stupid application tile interface and get the computer to boot directly to desktop and get the old start button back. This requires a free upgrade to windows 8.1, but there is no obvious way to do this, even through windows update. I finally had to search the internet to find the link. This sent me into the windows 8 app store. What a total mess that is! If anything, it is more poorly organized than the Apple app store. Like the Apple store, it seems aimed at people who want to browse applications virtually at random rather than find something specific. Incredibly, there is no search function. Yes, I know, I have to be wrong about that, but I scrolled all over that damn storefront and cannot find a search box.
So I cannot actually find the Windows 8.1 upgrade. The web site tells me that I should be presented with a prominent option to download it in the store, but I am not. It is nowhere to be found. I found an FAQ somewhere that suggested that I would not be offered the 8.1 upgrade if my 8.0 installation is missing certain patches, so I am going back to windows update to see if there is something I am still missing.
I was wrong about windows 8 -- I once wrote it was bad but perhaps not as bad as Vista or ME. But it is. This is the worst thing I have ever seen come out of Microsoft. It is inexplicable that this company with such a strong market share in the business world could saddle its flagship OS with an interface more appropriate to an XBOX.
In the past, I have said that I would not want a desktop with a tablet interface. But at the end of the day, I would not want a tablet with this interface. Perhaps with hours of work, I will make this computer usable. Who would have ever thought I would have longed for the day when I had to spend an hour with a new computer removing bloatware. Now I have to spend a day trying to emulate the windows 7 experience on windows 8.
People have developed many hypotheses for the lingering recession. Some say it was too small a stimulus. Some blame the sequester. I blame the Windows 8 launch, which I think has a lot to do with suppressing PC sales and thus much of the electronics and retailing sector.
Here are a few shoes that are left to drop for Obamacare:
I will score myself as the year progresses to see how many of these we actually see. I would not be surprised to see every one of these.
Revisionism on the causes of WWI seems to ebb and flow like a 20-year clock. It was Germany's fault, no it wasn't, yes it was. Etc. Here is the latest iteration.
I have read quite a bit on the topic of late. It was horribly complex, but here are a few thoughts.
The Germans were also responsible through bad decisions in bringing the US into the war, via a u-boat campaign that failed to achieve its goals (starve the Brits) but managed to bring US troops to Europe at almost the exact moment when British and French troops might have collapsed. Incredibly, the Germans made the exact same mistake in WWII, declaring war on the US so they could initiate a u-boat campaign against US shipping, when Congress might well have been happy to keep America's war limited to Japan.
This is Snuggles, happy to be home finally from her surgeries and near life-ending coyote encounter. Thanks to everyone who sent in their best wishes.
Like most of us she is a bit vain so she asked for the head shot, since from the sides she is a total mess of randomly shaved patches, bite marks, and Frankenstein-like stitches. She has lost about 25% of her body mass, so she is no longer the World's Largest Maltese (TM). She has, though, upped the ante in the competition for World's Most Poorly Groomed Maltese (TM).
For dog and pet lovers, I don't have to explain why we spent thousands of dollars to keep her alive.
For those of you who are not (and I was really in that camp a few years ago as this is my first pet), I will tell you what I told a cynical friend: "I did not necessarily spend thousands of dollars to save the dog. I spent it to save my kids from heartbreak. And just possibly, to preserve my reputation in the eyes of my family (sorry kids, I really wanted that new Alienware laptop so Snuggs is not going to make it)."
Update: I find the rational choices discussion in the comments unsurprising given the diversity of responses I have had from friends. Key facts here: 1. I could afford it (grandma was not going to get put out on the ice flow to save the dog); 2. I was entirely responsible for the costs; 3. The hospital, unlike in the human world, gave me a very detailed cost estimate of what the procedure would cost in advance. When the costs went over, we challenged them and they agreed to a refund. 4. My daughter had a very difficult day yesterday. This morning I found her sleeping snuggled up with the dog in bed. Put a price on that.
The other day I sent out an email listing a job opening next summer for camp hosts. The job was in an out of the way place (in Arizona, north of the Grand Canyon) and had been hard to fill. I have a list of 22,000 people who have asked to have camping jobs sent to them.
The email batch of 22,000 had a 54% open rate. That is ridiculously high.
I guess I should not make too much fun of our local paper, I know it must be hard to fill all those pages every day. But I have to laugh at the statistical insights our reporters provide:
Arizona will be entering the new year ahead on rainfall for the first time since 2010 as well as above-average temperatures, according to the National Weather Service.
OK, so 2010 and 2013 were above average, and presumably 2011 and 2012 were below average. Wow. Half the time above, and half below? I can certainly see why that deserved a headline.
Normally, the closure of a business operation or division is not grounds for a celebration, but in this case I am going to make an exception. At midnight on December 31, I not only drank a toast to the new year, but also to finally getting all my business operations out of Ventura County, California.
Never have I operated in a more difficult environment. Ventura County combines a difficult government environment with a difficult employee base with a difficult customer base.
And so I got out. Hallelujah.
PS- People frequently talk about taxes in California being what makes the state "anti-business." That may be, but I guess I never made enough money to have the taxes really bite. But taxes are only a small part of the equation.
Update: Wow, reading this again, I left out so much! An employee once sued us at this location for harassment and intimidation by her manager -- when the manager was her sister! It cost me over $20,000 in legal expenses to get the case dismissed. I had an older couple file a state complaint for age discrimination when they were terminated -- despite the fact that our entire business model is to hire retired people and the vast majority of our employees are 70 and older. And how could I have forgotten the process of getting a liquor license? I suppose I left it out because while tedious (my wife and I had to fly to California to get fingerprinted, for example), it is not really worse than in other places -- liquor license processes are universally bad, a feature and not a bug for the established businesses one is trying to compete with. We gave the license up pretty quickly, when we saw how crazy and irresponsible much of the customer base was. Trying to make the place safer and more family friendly, we banned alcohol from the lake area, and faced a series of lawsuit threats over that.
As explained by historian Stephen Davies, after defeating James II in 1690, protestants subjected Irish Catholics to harsh restrictions on land ownership and leasing. Most of Ireland’s people were thus forced to farm plots of land that were inefficiently small and on which they had no incentives to make long-term improvements. As a consequence, Irish agricultural productivity stagnated, and, in turn, the high-yield, highly nutritious, and labor-intensive potato became the dominant crop. In combination with interventions that obstructed Catholics from engaging in modern commercial activities – interventions that kept large numbers of Irish practicing subsistence agriculture well into the 19th century – this over-dependence on the potato spelled doom when in 1845 that crop became infected with the fungus Phytophthora infestans.
To make matters worse, Britain’s high-tariff “corn laws” discouraged the importation of grains that would have lessened the starvation. Indeed, one of Britain’s most famous moves toward laissez faire – the 1846 repeal of the corn laws – was partly a response to the famine in Ireland.
Had laissez faire in fact reigned in Ireland in the mid-19th century, the potato famine almost certainly would never had happened.