2019 Bracket Challenge Update
With 3 games to play, we still have three possible winners. Jeff Charleston (if memory serves a long-time coyote bracket leader), Bill Pearson and DontFollowMyAdviceImADummy. Best of luck to everyone
Posts tagged ‘Jeff Charleston’
And the Winner Is...
Jeff Charleston, who went nearly wire to wire to win. Here is the top ten, which yours truly finally managed to crack for the first time. I picked the fewest correct games, by far, of anyone in the top 10 but got a lot of upset correct and thus scored a bunch of bonus points. Memphis fans have to be squirming today. I almost didn't watch the last 2 minutes of the game -- Memphis seemed to have it totally in hand.
| Bracket | Rank | Points | Correct Games | Upset Risk % | Tiebreaker Total Points (diff) | Possible Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Charleston | 1 | 127 | 46 | 16.7 | 157 (14) | 46 |
| Bennett Johnsen | 2 | 126 | 47 | 9.5 | 150 (7) | 47 |
| Keith Ehlers | 3 | 115 | 44 | 16.7 | 188 (45) | 44 |
| Kevin Clary #2 | 4 | 115 | 42 | 13.8 | 176 (33) | 42 |
| Warren Meyer #2 | 5 | 115 | 41 | 21.4 | 125 (18) | 41 |
| Kelly McLean | 6 | 114 | 47 | 6.0 | 135 (8) | 47 |
| Kevin Clary | 7 | 113 | 42 | 13.7 | 174 (31) | 42 |
| Aj Dote | 8 | 112 | 42 | 2.5 | 145 (2) | 42 |
| Steve Jones | 9 | 109 | 45 | 11.4 | 157 (14) | 45 |
| Tom Kirkendall | 10 | 108 | 45 | 5.2 | 142 (1) | 45 |
The whole thing here.
Congrats to Jeff, and he can send me an email if he would like a free copy of either of my books. And no, Bennett doesn't win 2 copies for being in second.
Bracket Challenge Update
With just three games to go in the tournament, here are the standings:
| 3 games remaining | Must wins for best finish | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current rank (score) |
Player (125 total) |
Best finish (chance) |
Worst finish (chance) |
Final Few | Champion |
| 1 (109) | 1 (25%) | 13 (12.5%) | Kansas | Kansas | |
| 2 (108) | 1 (12.5%) | 11 (12.5%) | UNC UCLA | UCLA | |
| 3 (107) | 1 (12.5%) | 18 (25%) | Kansas UCLA | UCLA | |
| 4 (104) | 1 (12.5%) | 21 (25%) | UNC Memphs | UNC | |
| 5 (104) | 1 (12.5%) | 19 (12.5%) | UNC UCLA | UNC | |
| 6 (103) | 2 (12.5%) | 21 (12.5%) | UNC UCLA | UNC | |
| 7 (102) | 13 (25%) | 32 (12.5%) | Kansas UCLA | ||
| 8 (101) | 2 (12.5%) | 25 (12.5%) | UNC UCLA | UCLA | |
| 9 (100) | 2 (12.5%) | 34 (12.5%) | Kansas Memphs | Kansas | |
| 10 (100) | 1 (12.5%) | 29 (12.5%) | UNC Memphs | Memphs | |
| 11 (100) | 11 (12.5%) | 35 (12.5%) | Kansas Memphs | Memphs | |
| 12 (100) | 3 (12.5%) | 35 (12.5%) | Kansas UCLA | UCLA | |
| 13 (99) | 4 (12.5%) | 33 (12.5%) | UNC Memphs | UNC | |
| 14 (99) | 1 (12.5%) | 39 (12.5%) | Kansas Memphs | Memphs | |
| 15 (97) | 5 (12.5%) | 47 (12.5%) | Kansas Memphs | Kansas | |
I had show the top 15, of course, just to sneak myself in. In fact, there are still 6 people who can win. If you think of the three games yielding 8 possible game outcomes, Jeff Charleston wins on three of those outcomes, and Ron Gallagher, Kevin Clary, Craig, Tom Kirkendall and Keith Ehlers each will win if one specific combination comes up.
Bracketology Update
Not many people predicted to 12-13 matchups in the second round, but if they had, they would have runup some nice points given our upset-bonus in the scoring system. Here are the standings to date, which I reproduce only because, well, I am in them:
Bracket Rank Points Correct Games Upset Risk % Possible Games Jeff Charleston 1 74 37 16.7 52 hopeful 2 71 34 23.4 44 Keith Ehlers 3 70 36 16.7 48 Warren Meyer #2 4 70 33 21.4 46 Ron Gallagher 5 69 36 10.8 47 Nicholas Stergion ii 6 69 32 35.3 43 Dawn Werner 7 69 31 29.2 40 Stan Brown 8 69 30 32.0 43 Wade Condict #2 9 67 35 25.0 44 Craig 10 67 35 10.3 47 Paul Noonan 11 66 31 26.3 42 Warren Meyer 12 65 34 14.3 47
The good news is that both my brackets are in the top 12. The bad news is that I do a good job every year of picking early upsets and racking up early round points, and then I fall by the wayside in later rounds. We will see if I can hang in there. By the way, my loud-mouthed, smack-dealing son is in 76th place. The leader has 14 of his sweet-16 still intact, while my brackets have 11 and 9 respectively, which are pretty good leading indicators for future problems for yours truly.
One of the reason I like pickhoops.com is that they have some cool analysis tools. Here is my favorite, analyzing who has the best chances to win:
| 15 games remaining | Must wins for best finish | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current rank (score) |
Player (125 total) |
Best finish (chance) |
Worst finish (chance) |
Super Sixteen | Exciting Eight | Final Few | Champion |
| 1 (74) | 1 (29.6%) | 47 (<1%) | |||||
| 2 (71) | 1 (7.1%) | 90 (<1%) | Wiscon | ||||
| 3 (70) | 1 (4%) | 85 (<1%) | Memphs | ||||
| 4 (70) | 1 (7.2%) | 83 (<1%) | Xavier | ||||
| 5 (69) | 1 (<1%) | 67 (<1%) | |||||
| 6 (69) | 1 (4.3%) | 100 (<1%) | |||||
| 7 (69) | 1 (<1%) | 95 (<1%) | Memphs Xavier | Memphs | |||
| 8 (69) | 1 (19.5%) | 92 (<1%) | |||||
| 9 (67) | 1 (<1%) | 95 (<1%) | Memphs Xavier | Memphs | |||
| 10 (67) | 1 (1.5%) | 68 (<1%) | |||||
| 11 (66) | 1 (3.1%) | 101 (<1%) | |||||
| 12 (65) | 1 (2.9%) | 89 (<1%) | |||||
| 13 (64) | 1 (<1%) | 64 (<1%) | UNC | UNC | UNC | ||
| 14 (63) | 1 (<1%) | 66 (<1%) | |||||
| 15 (63) | 1 (<1%) | 62 (<1%) | Kansas Memphs | Kansas | |||
| 16 (62) | 1 (<1%) | 74 (<1%) | Memphs | Memphs | |||
| 17 (62) | 1 (1.6%) | 85 (<1%) | |||||
| 18 (62) | 1 (1.6%) | 104 (<1%) | Tenn | Tenn | |||
| 19 (61) | 1 (<1%) | 93 (<1%) | Davdsn Stanfd UCLA Xavier | UCLA | UCLA | UCLA | |
| 20 (60) | 1 (1.2%) | 112 (<1%) | Texas | Texas | Texas | Texas | |
See the whole analysis here.
