What Do We Know and How Well Do We Know It
"Consensus" is an absurd word to apply to science. It is more accurate to say that we have a series of hypotheses about the universe with varying levels of confidence. LuboÃ…¡ Motl has a post to get all you physics geeks arguing: His estimate of the probability certain hypotheses about the universe are correct. Some examples:
- 99.999% - String theory is a mathematically consistent theory
including quantum gravity, even non-perturbatively, at least in some
highly supersymmetric vacua - 99.999% - General relativity
correctly predicts phenomena such as frame dragging and classical
gravitational waves in the real world - 99.995% - Black holes exist ...
- 60% - At very high energy scales, a GUT theory with unified gauge
interactions becomes more natural zeroth approximation: GUT is correct - 50% - Supersymmetry will be found at the LHC
- 40%
- The Hartle-Hawking wavefunction or its generalization that will
require the author(s) to cite Hartle and Hawking correctly predicts
non-trivial features of the initial conditions of the Universe... - 0.0001% - Loop quantum gravity, with the metric as the only and
well-defined degree of freedom and with quantized area, is a correct
description of gravity in the real world at the Planck scale - 0.00001%
- One of the ESP phenomena measured in the Princeton lab actually
exists and can be measured again with a similar equipment
Here are some of my own:
- 95% - Probability that the Raiders, Browns, and Lions will all botch their first draft picks next weekend
- 85% - Probability someone will introduce legislation in Congress in the next 7 days in direct response to the Va Tech shooting rampage
- 80% - Probability that man-made CO2 is contributing a non-zero effect to global temperature
- 70% - Probability that Barry Bonds will break the home run record this season
- 60% - Probability that Prince Charles will ever serve as King of England
- 50% - Probability that all-electric vehicles will make up more than 10% of the auto market in the US in ten years
- 5% - Probability that man-made CO2 will contribute more than 2 degrees C warming in the next 50 years
- 5% - Probability of meaningful earmark reform getting passed in Congress
- 5% - Probability that ethanol or other bio fuels will make any measurable reduction in oil imports.
- 1% - Probability that the costs of CO2 reduction will be less than the benefits of CO2 reduction
- 1% - Probability that a true libertarian candidate will be elected president in the next 20 years
