My End Game Prediction for @Tesla ($TSLA) if They Really Do Go Private at $420
Readers know I am in the campground business. Years ago there was a trend towards building super-luxury campgrounds for as much as $30,000 a camp site. I never understood how anyone could get a return from this. Finally I had a guy from a large campground and RV park REIT tell me, "You know how you make money on a $30,000 a site campground? You wait for it to go bankrupt and buy it for $5,000 a site."
This is what I think the end game for Tesla may be. I just don't think there is enough available capital in the world, and enough operational focus in Elon Musk, to see their way through to bootstrapping an entirely new worldwide automotive firm, including new dealerships, manufacturing plants, charging networks, etc. Remember, Tesla does not just need capital for R&D and manufacturing, they also need it for the whole sales / service / fueling network. Kia, for example, can grow with less capital because it can get independent business people to invest in the service and dealer networks and rely on existing gas stations for the fueling network. Tesla must build all of this from scratch because of choices they made early in their development.
Even without an LBO, I think they were going to fail at this (despite having some good products) and others disagree with me. But given the amount of debt that an LBO at $420 might take, and the subsequent rejection of the largest public capital markets, I don't think there is any way Tesla could head off a failure. People who want to lionize Elon Musk forget that SolarCity was headed for exactly this same kind of cash crunch, only to be bailed out by a crony insider transaction with Tesla (much to the detriment of Tesla shareholders).
Right now, GM, Ford, Daimler .. pretty much any of the auto majors, would do well by buying Tesla. It would help them with an instant presence in the BEV market and it would help Tesla by solving some of the sales and service investment and manufacturing operations problems they have. But Tesla is just too damn expensive. Right now the company is worth more than either GM or Ford.
I see the future after at $420 LBO as a failure in 24 months followed by a purchase by an auto major thereafter.
