Posts tagged ‘Government regulation’

Donald Mamdani Trump

The WSJ reports:

President Trump said he will ban large investors from buying single-family homes, the administration’s first significant move to address the country’s severe housing shortage.

“I am immediately taking steps to ban large institutional investors from buying more single-family homes, and I will be calling on Congress to codify it. People live in homes, not corporations,” Trump said in a social-media post Wednesday.

I tell folks all the time that Trump is not a freaking free-marketeer.  This is yet more evidence.  His proposal is right out of the failed Progressive-Socialist playbook on housing.  Some quick thoughts:

  • Except where the houses have been converted to overnight rentals (think Airbnb or VRBO), people still live in these institutionally owned houses.  This is not withdrawing housing stock from the market, it is merely shifting it from individual purchase to rentals.  And there are arguments for there being more not less rental houses -- particularly when interest rates are high and/or housing prices are flat, houses limit mobility by locking a family to a fixed position, limiting the ability to seek out better employment in other cities
  • There is something to be said for renting from an institution, rather than an individual owner, as these landlords have better systems, large support and maintenance staffs, and often better legal compliance.  Because living in certain neighborhood boundaries is required to attend the best public schools, this allows families who could not afford to buy a house in that neighborhood to be able to live there.  It also opens suburban living to young couples who have not yet saved a down payment.
  • According to the WSJ, these institutions own 2-3% of the housing stock at most.  Hard to imagine that this tail is wagging the dog.  This is a typical populist grandstanding proposal with zero ability to address the intended issue, but a lot of emotional resonance with swing voters.
  • Real housing prices were likely flat to slightly down in 2025, so if there is a current "affordability" crisis it has more to do with higher mortgage rates than housing prices per se.  Rents have increased faster than inflation the last several years, but its hard to figure how removing rental units from the market based on this order will do anything to lower rents.
  • No one was complaining about institutional buyers back in 2008 when the market was awash in unsold houses and institutions began soaking up this excess capacity and providing much needed liquidity to the market.
  • I will confess the endless calls and texts to my cell phone from these yahoos trying to buy my house does piss me off, but not enough to ban their business model
  • Fiddling with ownership rules will not do anything for housing affordability.  The reason prices are rising is that there is not enough housing being built and has little or nothing to do with who owns the homes.  Many cities have myriad restrictions on home construction -- from outright limitations on new building permits to growth boundaries to onerous permitting rules -- while at the same time we subsidize demand through government mortgage insurance and the most lenient mortgages in the Western world (the bank can only take your house, not your other property if you default).  There remains much local support for housing restrictions -- you can think of many cities as a cartel of homeowners protecting their monopoly through restrictions on adding competing supply.
  • There are two financial reasons people want to own rather than rent houses (beyond an array of emotional ones)
    1. Mortgage interest is deductible on taxes, rent is not.  Why not equalize these, either by ending the deductibility of mortgage interest, or since that is likely a political non-starter, by making rent payments deductible?
    2. Historically home equity has been a good investment for many, with real home prices doubling over the past 50 or so years.  Over this same period, someone with a 90% Loan-to-Value (LTV) would have seen a 10x increase on their 10% equity portion.  As discussed above, this is mainly due to subsidizing demand and restricting supply.  However, this only works when housing prices grow faster than inflation, which is what people are now complaining about.  You can't have both -- either house prices rise faster than inflation and are a great investment or they don't and are more affordable but not a very good investment.
  • There is no way the President should have the power to mandate this.  Republicans are really, really going to regret these precedents when the next socialist-Democrat is in office and mandates something like national rent control.

Housing Affordability -- Where Everyone Is Wrong

There is one simple answer to why housing costs rise faster than inflation and incomes -- restricted supply mated with subsidized demand.   In many locales the supply of housing is restricted by the government (rent control, growth limits, expensive and time-consuming permitting, etc) and in every part of the country housing is subsidized by the government (mortgage loan guarantees, tax deductibility of mortgage interest, section 8 housing vouchers, etc).  The net result HAS to be rising rents and home prices.

I bring this up because we are in the insane situation that both the Left and Right are proposing to attack housing affordability by.... subsidizing demand and restricting supply.  Trump's idea is to extend government mortgage guarantees to 50-year mortgages.  All this is likely to do is increase the prices of houses to absorb the new lending limits.  We saw this in another sector -- college tuition -- where there is hugely subsidized demand and increased student loan limits led to almost one for one increases in tuition.

The Left -- from LA to NY -- is advocating for the same thing it always advocates for: rent control.  Rent control is a boon for current renters who have their rents locked in at unreasonably low rates but is a disaster for new entrants to the rental market because the construction of new rental properties drops significantly with rent control (actually the supply can go negative as current rentals are converted to owned units).  Rental rates are nominally kept in check but homelessness soars.  In addition, rent control has the under-appreciated harm of reducing labor mobility, as one cannot afford to move out of a rent-controlled unit to seek better employment.

Everyone Would Agree This Was a Bad Regulation Idea in 2009. So Now It's OK?

The new EU regulations on device charging standards are a really bad idea.  Via engadget:

The European Parliament has voted to make USB-C the common charging standard in the EU. All mobile devices with up to 100W power delivery (including phones, tablets and earbuds) sold in the region will have to come with a USB-C charging port by the end of 2024. Laptops will need to make the switch by spring 2026. Products that come to market before these deadlines won't be affected.

Most people I talk to seem to love this.   It is a relief for folks to know that all their devices will charge from the same cord, though it is already that way in my life because I have explicitly bought all my devices to use USB-C.  Yes, I have already standardized on USB-C myself so I have no problem at this moment in time with that charging technology.  The problem is the qualifier -- this moment in time.  Any government regulation that freezes technology in place is a really bad idea.  Sure, the EU says they are open to new technologies, but this makes adopting a new technology a matter of getting permission from one of the slowest and least efficient regulatory bodies on the planet.  When mobile phone technology cycles are 6-18 months long, who is going to bother with spending 3-5 years to get EU permission on a new approach.

When I go on rants like this with people I know, they tell me to calm down -- what, after all, would need to be changed with USB-C?  My answer is: "possibly everything".

Thank God we did not try to do this 15 years ago when mobile phone and charging technology was in flux.  Oh wait, we did!  Because we came inches away from similar charging standard regulation for phones about 2009.  Here is the article in Mother Jones lauding the United Nations-designed (!!) cell phone charger:

Good news: The [United Nationals Telecommunications] Union just approved a universal charger. If enough manufacturers adopt it, the industry could make half as many chargers—thus reducing greenhouse gases from manufacturing and transporting replacement chargers by as much as 15 to 24 million tons a year.

Bonus: The universal charger will likely use half as much energy on standby as conventional chargers, solving the “wall wart” problem.

The EU was trying to do the same thing in 2009, though fortunately it was voluntary.

The articles are helpfully illustrated with pictures of the handsets they were designing for:

Yes, had international regulators had their way 16 years ago, we would be stuck with something designed for these phones where one texted hello as 4433555555666.  It does not take hindsight to understand why this was a bad idea.  I wrote at the time:

There are at least two problems with this.  The first is that consumers are all different.   A lot of cell phones (and other devices like my kindle) are standardizing on a mini-USB connection.  Should I use the UN's solution, which is likely inferior?  Why?  Most of the time I don't even travel with a charger, I plug the mini-USB into my computer to charge.  That way I only have 1 charger on the road, for my computer.  You want me to carry 2, in the name of having fewer chargers?   You might say, "well, I hadn't thought of this situation," and I would say, "that's the point - you can't, there are 6 billion of us individuals out there."

The second problem is innovation.  Who says that innovation won't demand a different type of connection in 2 years?  Do you really want your technology gated to some working group at the UN?  Go back in time and imagine the government locking in a standard on something.  We still would have 801.11a wireless only, or cars would still all have crank starts (but they would all turn the same direction!) or cars would all have the same size wheels.  If the UN had invented something 3 years ago, it would have been power only and not data.  Today, most cell phones have power connections and connectors that double as data ports.

So many things would have been wrong with these.  They were power only and not data and power as we use today.  The cable was hard-wired to the wall-wart which would be incredibly annoying today.  It would have been either an old barrel connector, or if it was a form of USB it would likely have been one of the old hated non-symmetrical kind.  I don't think there was any data capability but if there were it would have been horribly slow.

Every single EU regulator would look at that old standard and say, yes it was misguided and would have been a mistake.  But THIS time it is smart?