2012 Drought in Perspective
I don't know if this is a result of the severity of the drought being overblown or of the continued improvement of farming technology, or a bit of both. Here is the recent data on 2012:
"As anticipated, lower projected production for both corn and soybeans was reported this month," said AFBF economist Todd Davis. "It will be some time before the long-term effects of the 2012 drought are fully played out. But it appears likely that continued strong worldwide demand for corn and soybeans will lead to higher projected prices."
USDA forecast corn production at 10.7 billion bushels. The average yield for corn was forecast at 122.8 bushels per acre this year, down slightly from the August prediction. Once harvest is complete, if the average corn yield comes in at 122.8 bushels per acre, it would be the smallest average yield since 2003.
I am glad I don't deal day to day with grain yield numbers, because every source I checked seems to be 3-5% off the other sources for historic numbers. There must be some definitional issues I don't understand with acres vs. net acres. But taking 2012 equal to to 2003, which is the worst-case way to interpret the above statement, we get this chart:
So, down 15-20% from the last several years, which is not good, but a number that still would be nearly an all-time high until about 2000. Even at this lower number, US yields will be more than twice the corn yield per acre in the rest of the world. Disasters are relative, I suppose, but this is a long way from the 1930's.
