If We Are Using Every Stimulus Tool in the Book at the Top of the Cycle, What Are We Going To Do In The Next Downturn?

From the Telegraph

The world will be unable to fight the next global financial crash as central banks have used up their ammunition trying to tackle the last crises, the Bank for International Settlements has warned.

The so-called central bank of central banks launched a scatching critique of global monetary policy in its annual report. The BIS claimed that central banks have backed themselves into a corner after repeatedly cutting interest rates to shore up their economies.

These low interest rates have in turn fuelled economic booms, encouraging excessive risk taking. Booms have then turned to busts, which policymakers have responded to with even lower rates....

“Rather than just reflecting the current weakness, [lower rates] may in part have contributed to it by fuelling costly financial booms and busts and delaying adjustment. The result is too much debt, too little growth and too low interest rates.

"In short, low rates beget lower rates."

The BIS warned that interest rates have now been so low for so long that central banks are unequipped to fight the next crises.

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You have a point. Those that die a writhing, painful death, probably wallowing in their own waste, will be unlikely to buy those products again. Of course, those that murdered them should be allowed to profit from their deaths and certainly should be encouraged to continue.

When I use the word capitalism I talk about competition in a free market, not government regulated markets where legislators bail out big business and make taxpayers and consumers pay for their errors. People who support real capitalism opposed the bailouts that you supported. They oppose the tariffs that protect Big Sugar, Big Agriculture, Big Steel, etc. They oppose the labour legislation that prevents people with low skills from accepting jobs that would allow them to prove their reliability and ability.

Note that people who support free markets tend to be libertarians or anarchists. They care about liberty and oppose the rule of the few. The rule of the few is the game of socialists and conservatives.

Like I said, I will always know where you are. Why, first Disqus will tell on you because everytime you post to me it thinks we are in some kind of worthwhile conversation. It would be a snap if I were following you, but it is hardly necessary. So, even if you do block your profile you won't escape.

Second, you always go to troll blogs that have science that you hate. Like a geoscientist like me would be a stranger.

But the third is by far the most hilarious. You can't keep your foul, lying mouth shut. Everytime you badmouth me it goes right into my inbox. Just like mine do yours. Of course, you are just so special, how could that be allowed to happen? LMAO!

IF you want peace, then lay off. I bet you can't.

Like I said, I will always know where you are. Why, first Disqus will tell on you because everytime you post to me it thinks we are in some kind of worthwhile conversation. It would be a snap if I were following you, but it is hardly necessary.. So, even if you do block your profile you won't escape.

Second, you always go to troll blogs that have science that you hate. Like a geoscientist like me would be a stranger.

But the third is by far the most hilarious. You can't keep your foul, lying mouth shut. Everytime you badmouth me it goes right into my inbox. Just like mine do yours. Of course, you are just so special, how could that be allowed to happen? LMAO!

IF you want peace, then lay off. I bet you can't.

Second, you always go to troll blogs that have science that you hate. Like a geoscientist like me would be a stranger.

How ironic. You are on a site that argues that the AGW narrative is a myth yet don't know it.

No, when considering you, it is how stoopid. I am just here to demonstrate that you do not have some kind of magical free pass to troll and harass.

If I don't know, then what were you doing trolling pro-truth sites for over a year?

You say stay on topic, and you discuss nothing that has anything to do with the article. Of course, I guess you will again just tell me the U.S. had to go away from the gold standard to fight The Great War of 1934! ROTFL!

Like I said, you are one stoopid troll.

Any time someone who uses Disqus posts on some site you do not automatically get a notification unless you have been on the site and commented on commented on it. When you follow people all over the web you are a troll.

Sorry, but I already explained that. In any case, you are a g.d. liar. You claim I am stalking you, but you know you are just lying. You have nothing new to say, just the same old discredited lies posted ad nauseum.

But thanks, I am taking this up with Disqus directly. You need to be closed down entirely.

Have fun with your trolling. You know that you are lying and you know you have been beat every time. Only a pent up mental case would keep trying to prove the unprovable.

Oh yeah, where are the answers to my pertinent and on-topic questions. This blog should realize you waste all their bandwidth harassing, and never, ever do you actually participate in meaningful discussion.

Don't think you surprised me at all. We were taking bets, and I lost again. I picked Tuesday AM, and darn if you did not start back trolling tonight. At least I was smart enough to only risk $5.

Sorry, but I already explained that. In any case, you are a g.d. liar. You claim I am stalking you, but you know you are just lying.

You do know that you are on a site that opposes the AGW myth that you are pushing, don't you? How many times do you ever read the posting or comments here? Yet, after I make a comment you decide that you must participate. Just as you did on the Modern Farmer site that you had never posted before, Motl's site (another anti AGW site) and the geology piece. You even followed me on the dictionary site where I pointed out the problem with the definition.

You are a troll my friend and look for attention. Understand what you are and try to improve from there.

Isn't that a rather stupid thing to say? You trolled much more truthful sites unmercifully. You trolled me endlessly because I successfully proved you were a greedy liar. Why am I here? I told you eVangeliar! I am demostrating to you that you are not special, you are not unique, and being an evil person can have consequences. Do you want me to publish your home address in Missisauga? You would do it to me in a heart beat, but you seem to think you are above the law, above all ethics, and are very, very special.

So, they ban me here? Who cares? I have just as much right to be here as you do. At least, I have one single-minded purpose . . . YOU. I am not here to engage others in destructive conversation, like you do, I am not here to offend every poster here, like you do, I am not here just to get the last word with every poster that comes here, and I am certainly not here to shut down this blog, like you always do.

In fact, it is ignorant to suggest your nonsense about this being a blog that opposes the "AGW myth." I have to roll on the floor laughing over that one. Ten minutes after I am gone, you WILL be picking a fight with one of the regular posters. It is what you do. You couldn't even stay with Czech fraud.

You know eVangeliar, I have accomplished everything I set out to do. Like I said, you lost from the first post you made. You wanted to deprive others of their Constitutional rights of speech, but all I had to do is the one thing trolls can't defeat. Persist! You have lost that last word dozens of times, and you have never convinced anyone of anything except your dishonesty and perversity. So, I can quit at any time. Heck, you are banned in every blog I actually care about. I hate to be mean to those that extend their bandwidth to me, but letting you be here is NO favor to this blog. You will certainly start "the stirring" as soon as you have a few moments to concoct some vapid complaint against something said in the blog.

I read a number of sites and post when there is an article that I am interested in or a particular comment that I either disagree with strongly or support. That is what most people do. They do not follow others around the web as you have chosen to.

And note that I am a real person who publishes comments under his own name. I do not threaten people as you do because my concerns are with ideas, not personalities. Since you cannot support your ideas with either logic or fact it is not surprising that you have chosen to be more concerned with emotion and hand waving instead.

You know eVangeliar, I have accomplished everything I set out to do.

What is that? Call people names and make statements that you cannot support with links to facts?

You wanted to deprive others of their Constitutional rights of speech, but all I had to do is the one thing trolls can't defeat.

You can't be so dumb that you fail to see the irony here.

Mr. eVangeliar, I have got you thousands of times telling lies. I have enumerated them hundreds of times without response from you. When you do reply, you just repeat the same lies. As well, you literally hate anything normal people consider humane or decent. You always want to argue points that have no proof and no value.

You earned the name in spades. At least where what you bought with pride.

"You know eVangeliar, I have accomplished everything I set out to do." I have. Your game to drive me out of conversation ended and continues to be a dead end with every post we exchange. I only want to resist a bully and waste the valuable time of someone that thinks he is worth more than the world. I, the one you see as worthless, bring down your rotten edifice with every wasted post you make. I have told you this hundreds of times, and yet you persist.

"You wanted to deprive others of their Constitutional rights of speech, but all I had to do is the one thing trolls can't defeat."

But, you are throwing non-stop fits when I deny you that pleasure. I demonstrate to all that you are morally bankrupt and your entire philosophy is a give the world ruins.

By the way, I do really love the fact that you have been banned from so many sites that actually address the facts with truth and intelligence. Now you are in this intellectual backwater trying vainly to abuse me. So. what if they ban me? You are not even smart enough to realize that I followed you here to demonstrate that you are not omnipotent. BUT, I came here specifically as this is a total throwaway group to me. You like it here, for now, but I could not care less.

W. S. Byrd has said hundreds of times, but now the eVangeliar is plagiarizing his comments:

I read a number of sites and post when there is an article that I am interested in or a particular comment that I either disagree with strongly or support. That is what most people do. They do not follow others around the web as you have chosen to.

And note that I am a real person who publishes comments under his own name. I do not threaten people as you do because my concerns are with ideas, not personalities. Since you cannot support your ideas with either logic or
fact it is not surprising that you have chosen to be more concerned with emotion and hand waving instead.
---
Your stealing my original ideas is all the more humourous, as it has taken you over a year to actually figure this out.

Where are my answers about the dates Commonwealth nations left the gold standard? How about France?

1917 is not 1934.

If you are going to make up nonsense, then
you should make up something that sounds true, and confine yourself to
belaboring the gullible.

You argue multiple points interchangeably and change the subject to avoid being seen as a liar. Well, I see you clearly. I always have. I always will. Only someone incredibly infantile would pull your stunts.

You don't realize that I have always enjoyed bashing you. All I have to do is wait, and infantile eVangeliar will lead me back to him. Like going fishing where the fish jumps right into the boat for you.

Saying something that you cannot support is just empty narrative.

Your game to drive me out of conversation ended and continues to be a dead end with every post we exchange.

You have too high an opinion of yourself my dim friend. I have no desire to drive you out of any conversation and do not worry about it because I can't control your motives or your stupidity. If you wish to be a troll by all means continue with your activities.

Canada abandoned the gold standard in 1914. France was off the gold standard during World War I just like Germany and Britain. So was Australia, Italy, Turkey, Austria, and Russia. As I wrote before, the Classical Gold Standard was abandoned so that the European nations could have the war that was responsible for their decline. How can you discuss an issue if you are not familiar with even the basic facts?

1917 is not 1934.

Who said that it was?

If you are going to make up nonsense, then you should make up something that sounds true, and confine yourself to belaboring the gullible.

You have shown to be as ignorant of this issue as you have of other ones. What exactly do you think is being made up and why given the fact that you have been provided links to support any claims that you can question.

You did not answer the question. In fact, you "suggest" some things that aren't facts at all, but you want to remain vague enough you can back-track you lie later.

And, if the "metal" standard is so important to you, oddly the economies of those nations could not withstand a war. Of course, like I said, you have already "suggested" falsehoods, so you lose again. Did you expect that "load" to get by?

What are you playing at by wasting these people's time and bandwidth? What are you trying to accomplish? Do you want me to broadcast interesting information to your multitude of enemis.

YOU DID!

If you are going to make up nonsense, then you should make up something that sounds true, and confine yourself to belaboring the gullible.

As well, you have shown to be as ignorant of this issue as you have of other ones. You substitute lies for reason. Why should I care? Your links are meaningless and repetitive falsehoods. Again, why should I care?

It is quite true that, you have too high an opinion of yourself my dim friend. I have no desire to drive you out of any conversation and do not worry about it because I can't control your motives or your stupidity. If you wish to be a troll by all means continue with your activities.

By definition, you are the troll. You always have been. I am not the one that idiotically restarts 3 month old discussions. I am not the one that restarts three day old conversations. I definitely am not the one that always hung around science blogs like some arse creep and spewed lies. I finally just started doing what you have been doing since you started in the blogs. But, the only one I am trolling is you.

Then stop spewing empty narrative. Like I said thousands of times, and it is now thousands of times, I have tens of thousands of scientists that have degrees and research experience. In your view Big Oil, businessmen, and a few liars have better authority. You can claim until you die that you are right, and it won't mean squat.

The fun part is, with the world mobilizing against you, soon ALL your authorities will be working to figure out how to get a bigger cut and avoid having to pay for the damages. Will you go with them, or will you keep telling the same lies.

And you sick pervert, I am not your friend. In fact, you use that because you are insulated from having any friends. Even the wack-jobs hate you after a few days of listening to you drone on and on.

Everyone, those on the left, right, and center, have fully agreed that you are nothing but a noisome troll. Of course, even there, you claim to be critical of all, but you are as far right as they come. Every hateful, racist, misogynist, bigoted thing you can say about just about every issue. But, when you run off everyone except your own right-wackers, you start on them too.

You are truly a sociopath. You have not once responded to that. I suppose that you are proud of your mental illness.

You are a "real" person, and I am not. I post under my name, YOU DON'T. You hide your last name Vesovski. You equate with the Slavic NAZI collaborators..

Your ideas are evil. Your personality is evil. Yeah, I do deal not only with ideas, but with personalities as well. When someone has to abusively lie every time he posts, then your personality becomes the entire issue.

We are not discussing. You have made that impossible. A view is based on facts. Your views are based on convenience in advancing your next lie.

The West went off the gold standard? Generally, for most nations that is untrue. Convertability was suspended to stop runs on the gold reserves. For most Western nations, this was just for the period of the war.

According to such a meager resource as the Bank of Canada, Canada suspended convertibility in 1914. The sole purpose was to stop runs on the gold reserves, not directly fight a war. That is not going off the gold standard officially. As well, Canada went officially back on the gold standard in 1926. Haven't we had this conversation before.

And no, since you never accept real expert guidance, and you have called the Bank of Canada a liar on more than one previous occasion, I will let you figure out the citation. It is easy to do. If you want a citation, then you should learn what a real "paper" is and confine yourself to academics. I do just that on a daily basis. If my data is contradicted, then I change my theory. You just keep lying.

I can wreck your other similar lies, but why should I. I do the work, and you just tell lies. So, sorry.

AND, eVangeliar, you are the liar that claimed a theory would be destroyed by one bit of contradictory evidence. Man, every bit of evidence destroys your theories. Yet, you just keep lying.

NOW, Mr. Metalist, if gold were so potent an economic factor, why can't it be managed. You don't get it, do you. You are arguing for something that you already know doesn't work!

I did answer the question. The Classical Gold Standard ended in 1914. While the US kept its convertibility it was a part of the failed post-War gold exchange standard. Learn a bit before you post on the topic please.

Which is proven false by the information I provided from the National Bank of Canada. So, you LIED again.

And, we had this discussion a year ago. It ended badly for you then. Why do you think this time if different? The truth has not changed, and you still lie. So, what is the point?

Second lie, you have to continue to claim that the U.S. went off the gold standard, and now you admit they didn't.

Third lie, you still refuse to admit that the U.S. did not go off the gold standard in 1934 to fight WW1.

Answer my questions. What purpose do you have in wasting these people's bandwidth? Why are you so insulting even to your hosts? Do you think you are going to win some great victory? If you do, you are just as much of a fool as I believed.

And, why don't you use your real name, Mr. Real Person?

I did?

Where? Please provide the exact quote and a link to it. I think that you have a reading comprehension problem.

Which is proven false by the information I provided from the National Bank of Canada. So, you LIED again.

Where is the link? While you are looking at it, here is what the Bank of Canada says.

The beginning of World War I marked the end of the classical age of the gold standard. All major countries suspended the convertibility of domestic bank notes into gold and the free movement of gold between countries. This was often done unofficially. For example, in the United Kingdom, private exports and imports of gold remained legal in theory. However, in addition to a number of government-imposed regulations that discouraged the buying and selling of gold, bullion dealers refused to permit gold exports on patriotic grounds
(Yeager 1976, 310).

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/1914-26.pdf

There you have it my ignorant friend. Try reading a book or learning something about a subject before you declare yourself competent enough to debate it.

How ironic that you post this on a site that has refuted your false claims regarding AGW over and over again. While the IPCC manipulation may work in some circles it does not do well on this site. If you want to argue about AGW you better bring something other than false claims of consensus.

Your statement only supports my allegation of you moral bankruptcy. This is about YOU, not the site.

Otherwise, answer my hundreds of questions, rather than engage in your usual moronic dishonesty.

Vangie, a lie only works on the unwary. Your continuation only shows that you know you are defeated, and that I was right about you all along. You just don't want to quit, because you think you are going to "win" the impossible, and you think you are punishing someone to get that. You are just sick. Laughable, but still very sick.

I only stopped actively pursuing you because of your constant whine. AND, your hypocritical lies and the fact that you totally surrendered by making your profile private. Yet, you can never get rid of me, as you are too stupid to stop.

You piece of filth, you go get the link. It exists and is easy to find, so do your own work. You prove everything I have ever said about your lack of honesty, because we both know that any link I provide will be ignored. You did it hundreds of times already.

On the second point, you are trying to take multiple positions and about the facts, all at the same time. And, unofficially is what I said. SO, your totally incomplete, and fake citation actually would support me.

YOU said 1914. YOU said, 1917 for the U.S. NO country actually went off the gold standard. NOW, you claim it was all unofficial. So thanks, you proved my point finally, and we are done with your nonsense.

You said the U.S. went off the gold standard to fight WW1.

FIRST, this was untrue.
SECOND, the U.S. went to war in 1917.
THIRD, the U.S. went off the gold standard in 1934.

The problem is my dear eVangeliar, I have very keen reading comprehension which confounds your constant twisting of words into lies. Or more simply, you have a total problem with the simplest common decency, but especially, the truth.

I will point out that we had this same conversation about a year ago. At that time you claimed the Bank of Canada was not an authority.

My citation is still the same. This is easy as the truth remains very much the same, but a liar like you is constantly in need of new lies to cover the old ones.

I don't think you understood what I wrote or know the history of the US Dollar. While the US did not technically go off the gold standard in 1914 it suspended specie redemption. If you bothered reading the references you might actually learn a few things. Here is the Fed paper on the subject.

As Europe moved toward war, the world's financial markets became highly disorganized, especially after acceptance and discount houses in London shut down their operations. Late in July, as foreigners began liquidating their holdings of U.S securities and as U.S. debtors scrambled to meet their obligations to pay in sterling, the dollar-pound exchange rate soared as high as $6.75, far above the parity of $4.8665. Large quantities of gold began to flow out of the United States as the premium on sterling made exports of gold highly profitable. Under the pressure of heavy foreign selling, stock prices fell sharply in New York. The banking and financial systems in the United States seemed on the verge of collapse.

Relief came without the suspension of the gold standard in the United States. On July 31, the New York Stock Exchange joined the world's other major exchanges in closing its doors, thus easing pressure on the gold standard by preventing the export of gold arising from foreign sales of U.S. corporate securities....

file:///Users/vangelvesovski/Downloads/218955350-frb-061989.pdf

If you bothered to read the references I gave you will find that the US did suspend specie payment on two occasions during WWI even though it was still supposedly on the Classical Gold Standard. The first suspension was temporary and lasted around six months. But after the US entered the war Wilson suspended gold exports, which meant that foreigners could not redeem their dollars for gold as they were supposed to under the gold standard. During its active participation phase the US was not very different than the other countries that had suspended specie redemption.

Learn something about the issue please. Your ignorance is a bit too obvious for anyone with even a passable knowledge of monetary history. And if you are going to accuse me of writing something that I have clearly refuted in places please cite the reference to support your contention.

You piece of filth, you go get the link. It exists and is easy to find, so do your own work.

While it is possible for me to have mistyped something or given the wrong impression you will note that my references clearly state that the US did suspend specie redemption while it was supposed to be and claimed to be on the Gold Standard. Please cite a link to support your claim. If you can't it is likely that you just failed to understand what you read as is typical of a know-it-all who is ignorant of the subjects that he is debating.

On the second point, you are trying to take multiple positions andabout the facts, all at the same time. And, unofficially is what I said. SO, your totally incomplete, and fake citation actually would support me.

If you were knowledgeable of the subject you would know that things are sometimes too complicated and not always black and white. For example, the US supposedly stayed on the Classical Gold Standard. But it suspended the Gold Standard in 1914 and violated it through an export prohibition in 1917 and 1918. Two positions can be taken and while they are conflicting we can easily support both with facts.

But note that some things are black and white and you happen to get those wrong. Canada, England, France, Germany, Austria, Russia, and the other countries made it clear that specie repayment would not be permitted because they went off the Classical Gold Standard to fight the war. Once the gold standard was ended it was dead. Even after the War, when countries tried to stabilize the monetary system, the Classical Gold Standard was never a possibility. They chose instead a less disciplined Gold Exchange Standard that was not very stable, created a massive boom in the late 1920s, and led to depression when the bubbles burst and the remedial action interfered with trade.

You really need to read a credible book or two on the subject. Probably the simplest and clearest for someone like you is Rothbard's, What Has Government Done to Our Money? My son read it when he was 14 and found it very useful. While you may not be as clever as he is you should still be able to follow the arguments. You can get the free digital copy at the links below.

http://tinyurl.com/on8u3ct (PDF version)

http://tinyurl.com/ne3hjqr (e-Pub version)

If the classical gold standard worked so well, why did it break down? It broke down because governments were entrusted with the task of keeping their monetary promises, of seeing to it that pounds, dollars, francs, etc., were always redeemable in gold as they and their controlled banking system had pledged. It was not gold that failed; it was the folly of trusting government to keep its promises. To wage the catastrophic war of World War I, each government had to inflate its own supply of paper and bank currency. So severe was this inflation that it was impossible for the warring governments to keep their pledges, and so they went “off the gold standard,” i.e., declared their own bankruptcy, shortly after entering the war. All except the United States, which entered the war late, and did not inflate the supply of dollars enough to endanger redeemability. But, apart from the United States, the world suffered what some economists now hail as the Nirvana of freely-fluctuating exchange rates (now called “dirty floats”), competitive devaluations, warring currency blocs, exchange controls, tariff s and quotas, and the breakdown of international trade and investment. The inflated pounds, francs, marks, etc., depreciated in relation to gold and the dollar; monetary chaos abounded throughout the world. In those days there were, happily, very few economists to hail this situation as the monetary ideal. It was generally recognized that Phase II was the threshold to international disaster, and politicians and economists looked around for ways to restore the stability and freedom of the classical gold standard.

Note that Rothbard does not consider the American failure to redeem specie payment as a default or going off the Gold Standard because redemptions in specie were restored after the War ended. Other sources clearly do not agree.

The government deviated from the gold standard shortly after the United States entered World War I. Large gold exports seemed to threaten the base of the monetary and credit structure. On 7 September and 12 October 1917, President Woodrow Wilson placed an embargo on exports of coin and bullion. These restrictions were removed in June 1919.

Note that this source does not even deal with the six month suspension in 1914 that the Fed paper covered.

YOU said 1914. YOU said, 1917 for the U.S. NO country actually went off the gold standard. NOW, you claim it was all unofficial. So thanks, you proved my point finally, and we are done with your nonsense.

No. All of the countries that were fighting actively were off the gold standard. That is clear no matter what source you look at. Even the US, which claimed to be on the gold standard would not permit the redemption of dollars into gold that could be removed from the country. As I said, read a book or two on the subject.

1917 is not 1934.

If you are going to make up nonsense,, then you should make up something that sounds true, and confine yourself to belaboring the gullible.

So you freely admit that you are merely an abusive, mentally unhinged
liar that feels the need to continue to belabor points that you have
proven yourself cannot be made.

There is nothing to discuss.
Continuing to bring this up again will not prove anything more than it
did the first time. Which was nothing.. It matters little whether this
blog whole-heartedly endorses you. You are just a waste of bandwidth
that wants to bully and troll, and I might add, break a number of the
"terms of service."

Please understand, once again I had a pool
going on how long it would take for you to start again. I lost, because
this time I guess to short. Of course, you are still a laughing stock
and a source of much amusement.

So you freely admit that you are merely an abusive, mentally unhinged liar that feels the need to continue to belabor points that you have proven yourself cannot be made.

There is nothing to discuss. Continuing to bring this up again will not prove anything more than it did the first time. Which was nothing. It matters little whether this blog whole-heartedly endorses you. You are just a waste of bandwidth that wants to bully and troll, and I might add, break a number of the "terms of service."

Please understand, once again I had a pool going on how long it would take for you to start again. I lost, because this time I guess to short. Of course, you are still a laughing stock and a source of much amusement.

I understand that you post whatever lie that is convenient. You have continued to post my talking points as your own, then twist the obvious conclusions to be totally false.