Posts tagged ‘Dick Morris’

Election Prediction

Since most knowledgeable people who always try to predict the election are refusing to predict this one because it is too close to call, I will take a shot at it (since I never have predicted elections before):

I predict a situation the reverse of 2000. Bush wins popular vote by a percent or two but loses electoral college. States mostly break the same as in 2000 but Ohio goes to Kerry.

I heard Dick Morris recommending that you can watch Pennsylvania tomorrow night for an early clue. In 2000, Pennsylvania broke 51-46 Gore. He suggested that Bush will win if doing getter in Penn, and will lose if doing worse. You can find how all the states went in 2000 here

The absolute best part of this election is that my kids are really pumped up to sit up and watch it. Part of that is that they are really clever about finding ways to evade bed time. But part is that they are generally interested. My 10-year-old son spent over an hour with my wife going over and trying to understand her absentee ballot.


Well, I was wrong but not way wrong. Bush did win the popular vote and Ohio was indeed close but broke for Bush. Well, I won't quit my day job but I will say that I was as close as any of those folks paid the big money to make predictions.