Today's Lesson in Public Choice Theory and Unintended Consequences
"F.D.A. Cracks Down on Juul and E-Cigarette Retailers" today, via the NYT.
As of this moment, cigarette-maker Phillip Morris stock is up nearly 4.5% on the news. This happens so many times in sloppy policy making that I can't even count them. Do-gooders assume that when they ban things, like e-cigarettes, that individuals will turn to the regulators' preferred alternative, in this case abstinence from any type of vaping or smoking. But in fact, many are much more likely to switch to tobacco smoking, which is orders of magnitude more dangerous than vaping. Adults who think these things through, like investors on Wall Street, understand this so that is why Phillip Morris has gained over $5 billion in value today. The FDA is working to create a whole new generation of tobacco smokers.
When I hear that "that teenage use of electronic cigarettes has reached 'an epidemic proportion,'" unlike the regulators I do not immediately assume this is unalloyed bad news. Another way of putting this is an "epidemic of teenagers who are turning to safer alternatives to really damaging tobacco products."
And when it turns out the regulators just make things worse so they can win this news cycle of virtue signalling, there is no way they will take responsibility for it,
And if you want to be really, really cynical about this, you might remember that with the huge government tobacco settlement, the government essentially made itself business partners with the large tobacco companies. Any competitors threatening the top companies in the settlement seriously threaten tax income to many state governments.
