When You Come Here, Please Don't Vote for the Same Sh*t That Ruined the Place You Are Leaving

From the WSJ:

Americans are leaving the costliest metro areas for more affordable parts of the country at a faster rate than they are being replaced, according to an analysis of census data, reflecting the impact of housing costs on domestic migration patterns.

Those mostly likely to move from expensive to inexpensive metro areas were at the lower end of the income scale, under the age of 40 and without a bachelor’s degree, the analysis by home-tracker Trulia found.

Looking at census migration patterns across the U.S. from 2010 to 2014, Trulia analyzed movement between the 10 most expensive metro areas—including all of coastal California, New York City and Miami—and the next 90 priciest metro areas, based on the percentage of income needed to pay a monthly mortgage on a typical home.

I can't tell you now many people I know here in Arizona that tell horror stories about California and how they had to get out, and then, almost in the same breath, complain that the only problem with Arizona is that it does not have all the laws in place that made California unlivable in the first place.  The will say, for example, they left California for Arizona because homes here are so much more affordable, and then complain that Phoenix doesn't have tight enough zoning, or has no open space requirements, or has no affordability set-asides, or whatever.  I am amazed by how many otherwise smart people cannot make connections between policy choices and outcomes, preferring instead to judge regulatory decisions solely on their stated intentions, rather than their actual effects.


  1. Ruggerbunny:

    "rather than their actual effects."
    But those effects are not from the well intentioned regulations, but from evil capitalists subverting the intent of the right thinking law makers.

  2. Dustin Barnard:

    I live in California and it's amazing to me how many people seem to think housing costs are high because landlords and developers are greedy. As if, housing costs would be just as high in other parts of the country if it weren't for those magnanimous home owners selling their properties at far below their actual value. Am I supposed to believe that San Fransisco landlords are just that much greedier than landlords in the rest of the country?

  3. Mercury:

    So, you can't really trust Californian immigrants to leave behind their barbaric folkways and incompatible cultural practices but the ones from places with no indoor plumbing and honor killings are likely to assimilate to the common values and expectations of their new countrymen?

  4. Matthew Slyfield:

    "I can't tell you now many people I know here in Arizona that tell horror
    stories about California and how they had to get out, and then, almost
    in the same breath, complain that the only problem with Arizona is that
    it does not have all the laws in place that made California unlivable in
    the first place."

    They are incapable of understanding the causal connection between those laws and the fact that California was unlivable.

    Their faith that government is an unmitigated good is unshakeable. If California was unlivable, it must be in spite of those laws, not because of them.

  5. Matthew Slyfield:

    "Am I supposed to believe that San Fransisco landlords are just that much greedier than landlords in the rest of the country?"

    Yes, you are.

  6. J_W_W:

    The left has spent the last 80 years disconnecting programs from their outcomes.....

  7. SamWah:

    I've read that there used to be a bumper sticker in Oregon that said "Don't Californicate Oregon". They did, though.

  8. ColoComment:

    Chicago Boyz has a post today (with a link to a T. Sowell column) that discusses lefties' intent v outcome.

  9. Ike Pigott:

    But they ARE greedier.

    The evidence of that lobbying for restrictions on other properties to choke out competition.

  10. Ike Pigott:

    Interesting, because Idaho has been getting a steady stream of California emigrees for decades, and not had that effect.

  11. Pinebluff:

    There was, or still is, a movement in New Hampshire to divide the state into New Hampshire and North Massachusetts as all the folks from Boston who had moved to New Hampshire escaping Boston and Massachusetts wanted all the stuff they moved to escape from in New Hampshire.

  12. irandom419:

    I think a lot of the misunderstanding arises from the media not talking to business owners or developers. If you hear a developer say something like it is hard to get land cheaply and that affects the house price. Kind of like the hotel exec praising Airbnb being banned.



  13. STW:

    I'm a California refugee in Montana (trust me, you'd hate it). I live in the largest city in the state and one of the benefits is, that for the most part, 90% of the streets aren't even plowed during the winter. It was that way when I was a kid and didn't change while I was away. Periodically, new comers complain about the roads but when the additional costs are mentioned enthusiasm wanes. I figure that hard winters and unplowed streets help keep out the riff-raff.

  14. Chris Miles:

    Progressives are so often like an idiot chess player that doesn't realize the other side also gets to move.

  15. SamWah:

    The saying in Minot, ND, is, "-41 keeps out the riff-raff".

  16. jon49:

    So at what point do we need to flee AZ because of all the CA riff raff? (For that matter the US too - and where to go?)

    I do know some good Californians that have escaped, a good retired anarchist friend. I think my step grandpa is more for small government.

    Up here in Prescott it seems like we are being drowned out by Californians. Makes housing costs much higher.

  17. Nathan:

    You left out how they always say they like the lower taxes, then talk about how much nicer the public facilities were in the state they came from. And even then, they don't seem to make the connection between the two.

  18. johnmoore:

    We need a border wall - on our western border!

  19. johnmoore:

    We escaped for CA. We were sad to leave the ocean, but that was all we were sad to leave. When we left, over 40 years ago, Tom Hayden and Jane Fonda had just taken control of Santa Monica. As a result of their rent control, the rickety tenement-like apartment I first lived in is still there, three blocks from the ocean. Those poor landlords - sitting on valuable property until the communists devalued it to nothing with their insanity.

  20. johnmoore:

    I think a lot going to Idaho are not enamored of government at all, so you are safe.

  21. Peabody:

    I lived in southern New Hampshire for a long time and this is very true. Instead of choosing "Die" in "Live Free or Die", I just moved.

  22. Thane_Eichenauer:

    All that is needed is an end to mis-education.

  23. wilfranc:

    Happens intrastate also. City people retire up north (Michigan), get on local government boards and pretty soon you can't build a garage bigger than your house in a county that has a total of 2 stoplights. Can't put a mobile home on acreage on a rural road, can't do a lot of things. And they love to brag about town how ignorant the locals are. Thank goodness they came and saved us.

  24. Dan Wendlick:

    I live in Wisconsin. Complaining about a -21F morning to my North Dakota-native boss, he responded "This is the weather that keeps away rattlesnakes, scorpions, fire ants, and people from California."
    I said "I'll take the scorpions."

  25. GoneWithTheWind:

    That is true. But they came anyway. The irony is that in Portland rents over the last couple of years has doubled. Many of the yuppie/hippie types who came here to escape California now find that they can't afford to live here. So the solution is that the Portland government is going to embrace a rent control scheme. There! That should fix it...

    By the way the downside of owning a home in Portland is that while the value of your home may have doubled in the last couple of years so did your property taxes. No word yet from government on any property tax control plans.

  26. Jason Calley:

    My wife and I are about a year from retirement, at which time we plan on moving to a small town in a very rural area. I won't say where. For some years and while still here in my current home, I have made it a point to talk bad about my future retirement location, the only exceptions being when I am with a few very close friends. I make jokes about how ignorant the people there are. How bad the roads are. How limited the services are. How inbred the population is.

    If you love your rural home, always exaggerate how bad it is whenever you speak with strangers from other areas.

  27. kbiel:

    I moved to NH 4 years ago (from TX via AZ) and was promptly told that the northern 2/3 was conservative and the southern 1/3 was infested with massholes. Well, I will admit that there are a lot of massholes here but Rockingham county, which has two of the most liberal cities in NH, Portsmouth and Exeter, is also the most red county if you look at the last two elections. In the 2012 presidential election, Rockingham had the highest percentage for Romney. Hillsborough, with Nashua and Manchester, went to Obama, but was the most weak of the blue counties. I give Strafford, Grafton, and Cheshire counties a pass for 2012 because they contain the three largest universities and the state supreme court nullified the residency requirement law for that election. So whither the northern counties? Merrimack, Sullivan, Carrol, and Coös? All went to Obama and by larger margins than Hillsborough. Other than Belknap, I think the theory of damn massholes is busted.

  28. kbiel:

    There's a ray of hope in the excerpt. Notice it says that a most do not have a bachelor's degree. That means they haven't had logic, reason, and common sense educated out of them. Of those that are in their 40s, my cohort, well I think they tend to be more libertarian or conservative for two reasons. One my generation is rather cynical and cynicism leads to distrust of government and "experts". Two, my generation tends to despise the Boomers and those are the people who are currently at the helm.

  29. Not Sure:

    By the time your generation is in charge, it'll just be younger assholes grasping the reins of power. Or maybe it *will* be different this time. Who knows?

    Good luck with your ray of hope.

  30. kbiel:

    Context matters my friend. This is in context of the out-migration from failing blue areas. I was pointing out that those moving out could be more conservative and/or libertarian than feared, meaning that they might not bring their failed states' political disasters with them. That is the ray of hope.

    As for whether Gen X can or will undo the destruction brought on by the creeping state at all levels, I doubt it. As a cohort, we are outnumbered by both Boomers and Millennials. So, even if I were to believe my generation superior, and I don't, then the right ones will certainly not be elected. How is that for cynicism?

  31. Not Sure:

    As long as government has as much power as it has, the system will continue to select for "not the right ones".

  32. Ray:

    They must not be talking about California then... higher taxes != nicer public facilities.

  33. mesaeconoguy:

    Actually, most people in the “hinterlands“ dislike the current governmental tone and tenor.

    Eventually, the Electoral College gives way to Oliver Cromwell, and his ruffians.

  34. jhertzli:

    They think they left California because of the crowds. That means they will vote for growth controls to keep Arizona from being ruined.

    After all, if developers want to build more and if developers want to raise prices that means they will conclude that building more will raise prices.

    OTOH, maybe this isn't that common. In New Hampshire the Massachusetts refugees have moved to southern New Hampshire but the swing to the left occurred in northern New Hampshire. I blame Canadian illegal aliens.

  35. marque2:

    But there are rattlesnakes in Wisconsin. http://www.weau.com/home/headlines/19477979.html
    Same two types we had in Iowa, when I lived there.

  36. jhertzli:

    Sigh. The BS is present in high school.

  37. marque2:

    Of course you need a rent control scheme, because the same Californians, couldn't bear to have views, and skylines ruined, and open space, built up with new apartments and housing.

  38. marque2:

    There is a bit of natural confusion about this. Newer homes and apartments, usually rent out / sell for more than the older ones, because they are new. So folks see the new $2000 a month apartment rates, or homes 50 - 100K more expensive than nearby homes, and yell greedy developer. What they don't realize is building new dwellings pushes down the prices of the older ones. So prices go down, just not in the most visible sexy new apartments that are in the news.
    Of course there are those who realize - once you own a home, if we now put in restrictions, my home will go up in value even more.

  39. Baelzar:

    Do not come to New Mexico. Cartels run this state - blood in the streets. Fire tornadoes. Bears are stealing children. High crime, low wages, terrible education. Do not come here. Do not.

  40. marque2:

    Funny, but the low wages part is the truth, which is keeping the riff raff out.

  41. c_andrew:

    Here's an instance of the idiocy...

    “It’s not because I don’t like paying taxes,” said Gardner, who attended both meetings. “I have voted for every park, every library, all the school improvements, for light rail, for anything that will make this city better. But now I can’t afford to live here anymore. I’ll protest my appraisal notice, but that’s not enough. Someone needs to step in and address the big picture.”


  42. Not Sure:

    Idiocy? Here's more...

    “Of course, I want people to have health care,” Vinson said. “I just didn’t realize I would be the one who was going to pay for it personally.”


  43. c_andrew:

    Vinson pro'lly thought that the Bamster's 'Stash' would pay for it.


  44. mx:

    Ah yes Santa Monica. Such a horrible place that tech companies from Hulu to Activision have flocked there to setup shop. Clearly, Silicon Beach is an illusion, Jane Fonda ruined it all 40 years ago.

  45. johnmoore:

    No, Jane Fonda stole money from the landlords by devaluing their property. If you approve of theft, then I'm sure that Jane Fonda's your friend. I wonder how those tech companies would feel if the government told *them* that they were not allowed to grow their companies at all - from now on, they had to stay the same size and charge the same prices, period!

  46. ano333:

    I don't know about this one, but then again I am not from Cali.

    I moved from NYC to Florida, and while I like having a car and a garage, I still miss NYC. Central Florida is a land of large ugly roads and no personality.

  47. Palyne Gaenir:

    I escaped CA 3/95. At the time it was 3x more expensive to rent a U-Haul going out than coming in. Everyone my parents knew had already left. I went executive-hippy for awhile when working p/t, and lived in an RV-van conversion for a few months with my guitar and sailboard, parking in the biz-industrial section, and there was a huge subculture of families of 5 living in cars and pickups, it was staggering and invisible. I traveled when I left CA and people in AZ, NM, OR and WA all told me that their real estate had been wrecked by CA refugees. The 3BR tract home my folks rented in CA when I was 16 was selling for $220K when I looked about 6 years later (circa 1989). My parents bought nearly the same home here in NE OK in '00 for $39K. And in a much smaller but nicer city - no gangs. Of course we also lack 1001 things easy to come by in CA (and enough meth problems to supply several states) and the cost of living aside from rent may not be much different, but, well, rent is certainly cheaper, though jobs are fewer. I work online (hallelujiah) so while my corp docked my salary for living in a poorer place, it's still good for the locale.

    Your comment on not voting for the same crap that made the original locale unworkable, works well with immigrant voters too I would imagine.