Lock of the Week

For the betting man, here is the lock of the week:  Obama, in his Wednesday speech, will outline a plan that does one thing but describe it as something nearly opposite.  This is a common political game, so it always is a good bet with any politician, but Obama has sharpened this approach into an art form.

The more interesting bet, which is probably more like 50/50, is whether Obama will

  1. Offer only incremental changes, to make sure he gets something passed he can call health care reform, but will describe it to the radical end of his base as sweeping change, -OR-
  2. Offer nearly the exact same core plan that is in the House bill that has so many folks concerned, but via changes in wording and euphemisms describe it to a worried public as something much more moderate.

I am honestly torn as to which it will be.  How are y'all betting?


  1. Brian Johnson:

    If Wednesday is supposed to be a change or tweaking of his strategy, he'll do #1. He has been doing #2 for weeks and months.

  2. K:

    I bet on 3.

    3) Obama doesn't mention health care at all. Instead he announces the arrest of 704 CIA employees for war crimes under the Bush Administration. Another 1,207 died while resisting arrest.

  3. D Davis:

    #3 - talk about blue and red pills and call a cop stupid?

    I think it will be #1. as Brian said, he's been doing #2 non-stop, to no avail. First it was health care reform, then health insurance reform. Then it was about insuring the uninsured, but later about saving money because of fiscal deficits ("bending the curve" [oh that mysterious curve]).

    So far, they've pitched it many ways, as all things to all people, but because the core hasn't changed (just a stinky fish no matter how you wrap it), it's spiraled down.

    there has to be a fundamental move away from its more toxic elements.

    I, for one, hope he tries to do #2, because that will more likely ensure that the whole thing will fail. his team knows that, though. This is now about face saving, getting ANYTHING they can before public opinion plummets further.

    Still, it will demoralize his base. Good.

  4. Ronald Hayden:

    He wishes he'd never brought up the subject of health care at this point -- he'll take anything written on a piece of paper and sign it, declare victory, and move on. With card check probably dead, and no one interested in more stimulus, the question is move on to what?

    As long as the Democrats run Congress he's pretty much a lame duck. Will be interesting to see what he tries to do under those circumstances.

    He should be praying for a Republican House in 2010...it could well save his Presidency by allowing him to actually get some things done that people in the country actually want done.

  5. John Cheek:

    #1;Lie,#2;Lie alot.It will be #2.Ask him why the Congress won't take it for themselves.That is all one needs to know about this 'debate'.

  6. Xmas:

    I'm betting #4, Obama presents his plan to bring the rightful dictator of Honduras back into power. Viva Zelaya!

    "We begin bombing in 10 minutes!"

  7. rob sama:

    It will be #2. The left has always believed that it was never the content of their message that was wrong, it was the way it was packaged. They convinced themselves that Reagan had bad content but wrapped it in good oratory. They're trying it here, except they think their content is good. Which to me means they're just gonna change the wrapping paper, nit the present.

    Obama is also a fanatic, imo, who may be driven to behave in ways that are politically suicidal, in order to get what he wants. Given the choice between two terms and no socialized health care, and 1 term but having socialized health care, he'll go for the latter.

  8. Rob:

    How about #5 (which might be considered #2)...
    #5. He will pour on the moral dilemma and say something like:
    "There are-uh... people out there. That-um. just don't care."

    This will make the debate less about the content and more about feelings. They can't win on content because the logical arguments, against the fallacies being sold, are too strong. If they can't attack on lies, then don't talk about content. Talk about how it makes you feel.

  9. Michael Miller:

    #2 has been a total disaster for him, so he has to go for #1, and to sell the huge numbers of voters who are already pleased with their health plans, and don't want the government to screw everything up for them. Between them and the voters on medicare (who feel the about the same way) he is going to have a very tough time. At this point it looks like almost everyone is on to him (except for the 18-25 bracket), and this has been the driving force in his plummeting popularity. I think public opinion has already hardened, and about the only thing he can realistically hope to achieve is to stop the bleeding in his poll numbers.

  10. Chris Yeh:

    Definitely #1. Obama has staked everything on passing healthcare reform. He can claim victory whatever passes, so I'm guessing #1 is a slightly easier path.

    What about #6? "My fellow Americans, I have concluded that all of these health care plans are flawed. Fortunately, I happened to be reading Coyote Blog the other day, and I think I see how we can fix this situation by applying free market principles."

  11. Tom:

    He has demonstrated no ability to adjust course, or to listen outside the echo chamber he's in, so I think he goes for #2. He is completely convinced that he is doing the will of the people, regardless of the evidence.

  12. Michael:

    I'd go with say anything. There is only one thing the Left wants. A public option that could cover all Americans. After they get that, they can attach little amendment after little amendment to bills pushing more and more people in to the public option.

    He's tried the "it's a right" argument, the "religious" argument, why not the "playground fairness" argument.

    By the way. "I am my brothers keeper" is a reference to the personal responsible people should have to help those in need. Not a moral cry to "render unto caesar" so caesar can put people on the dole responsible.

  13. Mesa Econoguy:

    He’ll do #2, because that fits all of the surrounding quotes and commentary coming out of numerous party and administration officials.

    The fact that current health care reform proposals out there are so wildly unpopular that they will need to literally ram them thru Congress for approval means that these morons have a very short window. If current trends continue, this means that they only have about 1 more year to get all the things done that they’re proposing.

    Obama did something equally interesting in his weekly podcast yesterday. He’s making opening salvos in a push to “reform” retirement savings, and ultimately limit and probably eliminate financial market access for plans. Rumblings of this go back to late last year, at the height of the financial crisis. Yesterday’s statement was innocuous enough, proposing a few tweaks but nothing dramatic. That will change. Next move will be to offer a plan which will be packaged as basic common sense reforms, a la health care, but will contain radical, unpopular, and dangerous changes.

    Unless he learns something from this health care episode, which is highly unlikely, but still possible.

  14. Evil Red Scandi:

    7) Remind the American People that he won the election and therefore has a mandate to do whatever the hell he pleases (despite it being the opposite of what he claimed while running) and we should all just STFU and swallow it. Be a good prole, dammit.

  15. Michael:

    Mesa, I heard part of a news clip yesterday that a person could get a government savings bond instead of a refund. I didn't catch what the refund was referring to, but I agree that the left has been eyeing private retirement capital for a long time.

    I don't know on the year time line. A lot of the blue dogs got their seats being conservative. If the Dems are willing to lose congress, they got the year, if they want to keep it, they need to find a new direction in yearly 2010 that they can take to the primaries.

  16. Roy Lofquist:

    #1? #2? Obama said "wee wee". Emanuel said "oh shit!"

  17. txjim:

    I vote #2. He will say he has heard the voices of those who disagree, and in the interest of bipartisanship, he will offer a "new" direction that takes the opposition's view into consideration. A new ribbon on the same old pile of manure.

    Prediction: repubs retake congress in 2010, forcing Obama to pull back from the lefty cliff. With hyper-taxation and cap&tax off the table, the economy finally rebounds. Obama wins reelection because all credit will positively redound to him. The MSM will spend the next 6 years crediting the prosperity to TARP, the Stimulus, and plus whatever other crap they can pass between now and 2010. It is a replay of Clinton's first two years. Hopefully this time the Stupid party will not blow it. But I bet they will.

  18. Michael:

    Stupid party = Coke or Pepsi party?

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  20. Fred from Canuckistan . . .:

    He'll change the channel and just talk about how great it is speak with school kids, to get to their minds early, correct the "parenting mistakes" that have been made and show them a little "Hope & Change"


  21. Greg:

    As unbelievable as it seems, he'll go with #2.

  22. Elliot:

    I've forgotten what #2 is after all these replies.

    What burns me up endlessly is how the "Healthcare" or "Whatever it is today" bill contains so much of what the Left has always longed for. It may as well be a Government run plan to get people bargains on oil changes (must have competition), or hair cuts. What possible point is there to include all the personal micromanagement stuff in the house bill? They have to have access to our bank accounts cuz we have to pay for something?? The IRS is the enforcer?? What liberal wet dream did this come from? How can this possibly be the starting point of any government run plan? Just give us your rights and we'll give you all you've ever wanted.

    I'll take a #2 with a side of potatos.


  23. J Howe:

    Looks like it's going to be #2 (somehow that seems appropriate)