Don't Get Too Hopeful
Those of you who may be encouraged by the reports of disagreements and problems among Democrats in reachi9ng consensus on a health care takeover, don't be too encouraged. This appears to be exactly like the run up to Waxman-Markey. If this is the case, these cries by certain Democrats of problems in the bill are really thinly disguised pleas for bribes.
Recalcitrant Democrats in Congress know that Obama will be happy to spend tens of billions in taxpayer money to buy off the votes he needs to pass these bills. This is how they got over the hump in the House with Waxman-Markey, and you can expect the same thing to happen again, and happen fast, on health care. In fact, I expect the bribes to be higher than the $3.5 billion per vote clearing price on Waxman-Markey. Obama knows that only steamroller tactics will pass a bill -- if he pauses even for a second to let opponents have time to take their case to the public (or even to finish reading the bill) he will likely lose. Sunlight is his worst enemy right now, and he will gladly spend our money for porkbarrel projects in key districts to avoid it.
James H:
It's even easier for them to support since they won't be covered by this insurance plan, but will get the super-special gov't employee plan. I think that you're right, all the dissent is only posturing for pork. I hear that in some districts, the representative closes their blinds and locks their doors to avoid the constituent's protests.
July 21, 2009, 12:49 pmlinus stephens:
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July 21, 2009, 2:06 pmMichael:
Since this isn't going to be implemented until 2013, favorable changes in 2010 and 2012 could keep it unfunded. Also, since the taxes kick in first, if small business starts cutting employment levels, there could be motivation to repeal the law. And I can only imagine there would be lawsuits. Whole classes of people are going to be forced in to the program. Heritage puts it at 83 million shortly after implementation.
July 21, 2009, 7:28 pmRobert Arvanitis:
Obama's power is based on the perception of power.
That creates the risk of a market panic. Once the perception shifts, it becomes a self-fulfilling process.
He is now perilously close to a tipping point, beyond which bribes will no longer matter, just like "stimuli."
July 21, 2009, 7:44 pmJames H:
What happens if what Michael says is true? If it is unfunded, does that mean that you have no option whatsoever for insurance? By then, there probably won't be any "qualified" private plans left, or does none of that start until 2013? Also, why 2013? Is it because it's after the 2012 presidential election? No, I'm sure that's not it.
July 21, 2009, 8:15 pmAndrew:
@James: not only after the election, but after the End Of The Worldâ„¢ too. ;-)
July 22, 2009, 3:33 amTravis Monitor:
"Also, since the taxes kick in first, if small business starts cutting employment levels, there could be motivation to repeal the law."
The track record isnt good on repealing govt programs, but at least the catastrophic healthcare bill was repealed in late 1980s. It can happen but only if the people are loud and furious and start getting Congress-critters fired on a massive basis. A 50 seat turnover in Congress might do the trick.
Our best chance now is to engage in the politics of delay. The Demos know that and hence their mad rush to pass a bad bill.
July 22, 2009, 8:50 am